Post-Golden Week Capacity: Blank Sailings Begin to Ease

Transpacific capacity is showing the first signs of normalization after the Golden Week reduction cycle.

Drewry reported 10 blank sailings for the following week, down from 13 in the current week, indicating that available capacity is beginning to increase. This is a change from the pre-holiday period, when carriers were removing more sailings to manage lower Golden Week cargo volumes.

For China–U.S. shippers, however, improving overall capacity does not mean every scheduled vessel will operate as planned. Individual voyages, port calls and cargo cutoffs can still change.

Post-Golden Week Rate Watch: Los Angeles Holds While New York Edges Higher

The expected post-Golden Week rate correction has not yet clearly appeared on the two main U.S. lanes.

As of October 1, Drewry assessed Shanghai–Los Angeles at $7,835 per 40ft container, essentially unchanged from the previous week. Shanghai–New York increased 1% to $10,428. Meanwhile, the overall World Container Index declined 1% to $4,434.

The distinction matters: a declining global container index does not necessarily mean China–U.S. freight rates are falling.

Compared with September 24, Los Angeles has remained broadly flat while New York has edged higher. The next rate movement will depend partly on how quickly post-holiday cargo demand returns and how much capacity carriers restore.

October Shipping Window: Watch the First Post-Holiday Cargo Wave

The next operational question is shifting from pre-Golden Week capacity reduction to post-holiday cargo recovery.

Factories, suppliers, trucking operations and consolidation activity are returning after the holiday period. At the same time, carriers are beginning to restore some capacity.

The key variable for the next one to two weeks is therefore the balance between the two:

If accumulated factory orders are released quickly, selected sailings and LCL consolidation windows could tighten even while the broader blank-sailing count declines. If demand returns more gradually, the additional capacity could create better booking conditions and eventually put downward pressure on rates.